Finance||美国的通胀预期将如何锚定?
2021-04-10 21:54:40 来源： 浏览：1次
Finance||美国的通胀预期将如何锚定?
收录于话题 #The Economist 206个 Inflation expectations通胀预期
A different kind of fluke另一种侥幸
Just how anchored are America’s inflation expectations?美国的通胀预期将如何锚定?
1.Since democrats proposed a $1.9trn fiscal stimulus in January, hawks have warned that America’s economy might overheat. With cheques for $1,400 now landing in bank accounts, President Joe Biden reportedly considering spending another $3trn on infrastructure and the Federal Reserve showing no sign of putting the brakes on the rebound from the pandemic, the predictions of impending doom are getting louder. The latest was delivered by Larry Summers, a former treasury secretary, on March 20th. Mr Summers sees it as more likely than not that the economy will suffer either from an inflation surge or from the crushing effects of higher interest rates. America, he says, has the least responsible economic policy in 40 years.自从一月份民主党提出1.9万亿美元的财政刺激计划以来，鹰派就警告说美国经济可能会过热。随着1400美元的支票存入银行账户，据报道，美国总统乔·拜登(Joe Biden)还正在考虑在基础设施上再投入3万亿美元，而美联储(fed)也没有表现出任何阻止经济从疫情中反弹的迹象，末日即将来临的预言越来越响亮。最新的一份报告是由前财政部长拉里?萨默斯于3月20日发布的。萨默斯认为，经济更有可能遭受通货膨胀飙升或摧毁性高利率的影响。他说，美国当前的经济政策是40年来最不负责任的。注：美联储鹰鸽两派：美联储鹰派、鸽派的区别主要取决于对通胀的容忍程度，鹰派对通胀的容忍程度更低一些，宁愿在经济上有一定牺牲也要稳定物价；鸽派对通胀的容忍程度则要高一些，愿意承担一定程度上的通胀也要促进经济发展。
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With cheques for $1,400 now landing in bank accounts, President Joe Biden reportedly considering spending another $3trn on infrastructure and the Federal Reserve showing no sign of putting the brakes on the rebound from the pandemic, the predictions of impending doom are getting louder.
With复合结构引导三个并列伴随状语，形式为“with + 宾语 + doing（landing、considering和showing）”，其中“put the brakes on”意为控制、制止、抑制，所以主句其实是the predictions of impending doom are getting louder。
1,400美元的支票现在落入银行账户，据称拜登总统考虑再支出3万亿美元用于基础设施，同时美联储并不打算控制疫情反弹，人们对于前景愈发悲观。
2.The worst-case scenario painted by inflation hawks can be broken into stages. First, inflation will soon rise mechanically as numbers from the spring of 2020, when the economy and commodity prices slumped, fall out of comparisons with a year earlier. On that everyone agrees.鹰派人士所描绘的通胀最坏情况是分阶段进行的：首先，由于2020年春季的通胀数据（时逢经济和商品价格暴跌）与去年同期相比有所下降，所以这段时间通胀将很快出现机械式上升。每个人都同意这一点。
3.The next phase is a second wave of inflation as spending by newly vaccinated consumers rebounds from the pandemic faster than production can keep up. Even stimulus advocates typically admit that overheating is a risk, and it would be more likely should more deficit spending pass. Mr Biden may unveil the spending side of his infrastructure bill alongside his preliminary annual budget proposals for government departments, which are due next week. Whereas some of any Biden infrastructure bill may be paid for by raising taxes, it seems unlikely that Congress would raise $3trn this way, rather than relying on at least some extra borrowing.下一阶段是第二波通货膨胀，因为随着新冠疫苗的接种，消费需求将从疫情中以更快的速度反弹，以至于出现供给不足。即使是刺激计划的支持者也承认存在经济过热的风险，而且如果更多的赤字支出通过，这种风险的可能性更大。拜登可能会在他为政府部门提出初步年度预算提案的同时，公布基础设施法案支出方面的内容。该提案将于下周到期。尽管拜登的一些基础设施法案可能是通过增加税收来支付，但国会不太会接受这种单一来源的方式，很有可能会考虑一些财政赤字来筹集这3万亿美元。
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Whereas some of any Biden infrastructure bill may be paid for by raising taxes, it seems unlikely that Congress would raise $3trn this way, rather than relying on at least some extra borrowing.
Whereas作为转折连词引导状语从句，it seems unlikely that引导主语从句，it为形式主语，that后面是真正的主语。
虽然拜登的任何基础设施法案都可能通过加税来落实，但国会似乎不太可能通过这种方式筹集3万亿美元，而是至少依靠一些额外的借款。
4.It is the last stage of the doomsday timeline that is most controversial, in which temporary inflation turns permanent as the public’s inflation expectations rise and become self-fulfilling. Workers, anticipating a higher cost of living, demand higher pay; forward-thinking firms raise prices. The result would be a return to the 5% plus inflation of the late 1960s, or perhaps even the 10%-plus rates of the 1970s.最具争议的是末日时间表的最后阶段：随着公众对通胀预期上升并自我应验，暂时性通胀将变成永久性通胀。预期生活成本上升，工人要求更高的工资;富有远见的公司则提高价格。其结果将是回到60年代末期5%以上的通胀率，甚至可能回到70年代10%以上的通胀率。(By Mary Carol Libby)
5. In recent decades the grip of the Fed on inflation expectations seemed ironclad. Even when in 2019 unemployment plumbed depths not seen since the 1960s, inflation expectations did not stir very much. In theory that makes all inflation surprises temporary. “Having [inflation expectations] anchored at 2% is what gives us the ability to push hard when the economy’s really weak,” said Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chairman, on March 17th.
近几十年来，美联储（Fed）对通胀预期的掌控似乎拥有钢铁般的意志。即使2019年失业率跌至20世纪60年代以来最低点，对通胀预期的管理也没有受到太大影响。从理论上来说，所有的通胀意外出现都是暂时的。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）3月17日表示 “将[通胀预期]固定在2%使我们有能力在经济真正疲软的时候大力推动它”。
6. But how strong is the anchor? There are at least three types of inflation expectations: those priced into financial markets; those that appear in surveys of households and businesses; and those of professional forecasters. Market expectations have been spooking hawks. The ten-year bond yield has risen to about 1.7%, up from 0.5% in early August. However, the inflation expectations incorporated in these yields remain broadly consistent with the Fed’s target (see Buttonwood). The bigger problem is tail risk. William Marshall of Goldman Sachs, a bank, calculates that the implied inflation risk premium—in effect, the price of insuring against very high inflation—has risen. The market-implied probability of average consumer-price inflation exceeding 3% per year for the next five years is over 30%, according to the Minneapolis Fed. That does not imply 1970s-style inflation, but would be uncomfortable for the Fed.但这个锚点有多牢固呢？至少存在三种类型的通胀预期：一是，出现在金融市场定价中，二是出现在家庭和企业调查中，三是来自专业的预测者。市场预期一直让鹰派（hawks）人士感到恐慌。十年期的国债收益率已经从八月初的0.5%升至1.7%左右。然而，这些收益率所包含的通胀预期仍与美联储的目标大体一致（详见[Buttonwood]）。最大的问题在于尾部风险。高盛银行（Goldman Sachs）的威廉·马歇尔（William Marshall）计算出，隐含的通胀风险溢价——实际上是针对超高程度通胀的保险的价格——已经上升了。根据明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行（Minneapolis Fed）的数据，市场预估未来五年平均消费价格的通胀率每年超过3%的可能性超过30%。这并不意味着会出现20世纪70年代那样的通胀，但会令美联储感到不安。
7. The evidence suggests that survey expectations are more important than market prices. Households’ inflation expectations have not budged much, though consumers, like investors, have become less certain about the future (see chart). The danger is that the public is poorly informed, and its expectations are therefore fickle. Even firms do not seem to pay much attention to inflation nowadays. When Olivier Coibion of the University of Texas and three co-authors surveyed top executives in April 2018, 55% said that they did not know what inflation would be over the next year. When they do have a view, both firms and households chronically overestimate price rises. Consumers seem unduly swayed by the price of petrol. The authors concluded that the public’s expectations looked “anything but anchored”.证据表明调查预期比市场价格更重要。尽管消费者（如投资者），对未来的确定性降低了（详见图表），但家庭对通胀的预期并没有太大变化。危险在于公众信息贫乏，因此其期望值时常变化。如今即便是企业也似乎没有对通胀太过重视。当得克萨斯大学（The University of Texas）的奥利弗·科比昂（Olivier Coibion）与三位合作者在2018年4月对高管们进行调查时，55%的人表示不知道未来一年的通胀情况。当他们必须拿出一个观点时，企业和家庭都会习惯性地高估物价涨幅。消费者似乎受到油价的过度影响。作者的结论是，公众的期望看起来 “毫不稳定” 。(by Ariel Bricio Mary)
8.Professional forecasters can give Mr Powell most comfort. They are nearly unanimous and unwavering in believing what the Fed says about the long term. Yet their historical record as an early warning signal is not encouraging. As the economy overheated in the late 1960s prognosticators were behind the curve, according to theLivingston survey,the best available record of their views.鲍威尔能从专业预测员那里获得最多的安慰。他们几乎一致坚定地相信美联储关于长期控制通胀的说法。但是根据历史记录，他们以前给出的预警收效甚微。利文斯顿最能证明这一观点的调查显示，在上世纪60年代后期经济过热期间，专业预测员跟不上形势变化。
9.Part of the explanation is that forecasting inflation is hard. Even with today’s vastly improved methods, after two years the consensus inflation forecast is on average off by 0.4 percentage points in one direction or another, calculates Goldman Sachs. Someone who forecasts that a central bank’s target will lose credibility before it happens can look unhinged. Even Mr Summers—who does not suffer from excessive humility—couches his predictions in probabilities which make it nearly impossible for him to be proved wrong.部分原因是很难预测通胀。高盛的计算结果表明，即使在运算方法大幅改善的今天，对两年之后通胀水平的预测也会与真实水平相差0.4个百分点。任何一个在央行目标失去可信度之前，就这样预测的人都会被视为疯子。即使是十分张扬的萨默斯先生也使用概率来预测，这样以后人们会很难说他错了。
10.Joseph Gagnon of the Peterson Institute, a think-tank, says the Fed should promise “dramatically” higher interest rates if inflation rises and does not fall back. Saying this too soon would knock confidence. Arguably, however, the Fed is undermining the implicit understanding that it will tackle overheating by emphasising its duty to ensure a thriving jobs market that reduces inequality. That makes it harder to imagine the central bank crushing inflation by engineering a recession, as happened in the 1980s. Should enough people doubt its hypothetical resolve, the door to persistently higher inflation—or to a painful credibility test—would be ajar.智库彼得森研究所(the Peterson Institute)的约翰夫·加农(Joseph Gagnon)表示，如果通胀水平持续上升而没有回落，美联储就应该承诺“大幅”提高利率。虽然太早这样说会打击人们的信心，但是，事实上，美联储强调自己有责任确保就业市场的繁荣、从而减少不平等，这样就削弱了人们对它将解决经济过热问题的信心。这让人们很难想像央行会像上世纪80年代那样借经济衰退抑制通胀。如果质疑美联储在假定情况下解决问题决心的人达到了一定数量，那么未来要么通向持续的高通胀，要么通向令人痛苦的信任测试——的大门会保持开启状态。(by Leslie Charles William)
长难句：Shannen一审：Libby二审：Michael
